Butterfield Bermuda Championship

The Butterfield Bermuda Championship

It was another great week for us in Mexico as we continued what has been a really strong Fall series for us by bagging our second winner in the six events to date.

The man who landed the trophy for us was Austin Eckroat. Those  who read my pre event preview will know that I was really keen on Eckroat coming in to the week so it was fantastic to see him reward our confidence in style.

After posting a really solid opening round in the wind Austin hung around the top of the leaderboard all week before closing in style with a 9- under round of 63 to bag the trophy.

The Oklahoma grad looked in total control all of Sunday before a chunked chip on the 72^nd hole lead to a closing bogey six, thus opening the door for Carson Young to potentially make eagle and force a play-off. Fortunately for us Young couldn’t deliver what he needed leaving Eckroat to land his second title of his breakout season.

So we move on in great spirits and it’s time for the penultimate event of the PGA Tour Fall season, the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.

The event, which first debuted on Tour in 2019 as an opposite field event to the WGC HSBC Champions event will for the fifth year running take centre stage as the only PGA Tour event this week.

As has been the case since its inception the host course will be the Port Royal GC in Southampton.

The field, which it must be said is weak, is made up predominantly of players who are still battling for a spot on the ‘next ten’ 50-60, or the top 125 or 150.

The market is headed up by Seamus Power with the Irishman then closely followed by Mackenzie Hughes, Maverick McNealy, and Ben Griffin.

COURSE

Port Royal GC is a par 71 measuring just over 6800 yards.

The greens are Tiff Eagle Bermuda.

The course is a Robert Trent Jones design.

The course features a mix of tree lined holes early on before coastal holes exposed to the Atlantic Ocean take over later on in the front nine and dominate the rest of the way home.

From that point of view the wind can clearly be a factor and we should be looking towards other shorter coastal courses with obvious similarities for reference such as El Cameleon, home of the Mayakoba where last years winner Brendan Todd was also victorious a week later, Harbour Town at Hilton Head, Sea Island home of the RSM and Waialae CC home of the Sony Open.

 HISTORY

With the event only having been on the calendar for five years we are still building a picture of what it takes to succeed here. Here though is the final top ten from those four leaderboards.

2023

1^st C Villegas

2^nd A Noren

3^rd M Schmid

4 C Yuan

T5 A Scott & R Moore.

7^th S Cink

T8th, R Palmer, T Alexander, K Roy, V Whaley, T Pendrith.

2022

1^st S Power

2^nd T Detry

T3^rd P Rodgers, B Griffin & K Yu

T6th A Baddeley, D McCarthy

T8th M McGreevey, J Lower

10^th H Endycott

2021

1^st L Herbert -15

T2nd D Lee & P Reed -14

4^th P Rodgers -13

T5th T Pendrith & S Stallings -12

T7th P Malnati, JJ Spaun, C Thompson, D Riley & V Whaley -11

2020

1^st – B Gay -15

2^nd – W Clark -15

3^rd – O Schneiderjans -13

T4th – D MCarthy, S Cink, M Jones, D Redman -12

T8th – D Hearn, K Hickok, R Armour

2019

1^st – B Todd -24

2^nd - H Higgs -20

T3^rd - H Lebioda, A Wise, B Gay, & S Scheffler -18

7th – F Gomez -17

T8th – D Hearn, W Roach & R Armour -15

As we can see from these results while the event has only been running for five years a clear pattern has emerged with shorter straight hitting players like Gay, Todd, Hearn, Armour, Redman, Hickok & R Moore coming to the fore.

In 2022 this pattern was broken to a certain extent as PGA Tour rookie Lucas Herbert who is longer than average off the tee prevailing.

2023 champion Seamus Power is shorter in distance than average off the tee, while other shorter hitters like B Griffin, A Baddeley and K Yu also performed strongly that year. Similarly last years champion Villegas again fitted the profile of someone who when in the groove plots his way round the course these days.

One trend that that has developed over the five years is that strong putters seem to go really well here. The first two winners Brendan Todd & Brian Gay have always been known for their work on the greens while 2022 winner Lucas Herbert actually topping the 21/22 PGA Tour SGP rankings. Meanwhile 2023 winner Power’s putter is best club in his bag.

Last years winner Villegas slightly bucked that trend as he’s not known particularly for his strength on the greens and he ranked 11^th in that department on the week. Runner up Noren though is renowned for his putting and was top 20 on the PGA Tour with the flat stick last year.

The first two winners had both been known as players who thrived more on their favoured East Coast surfaces and while as a PGA tour rookie Herbert didn’t have this pedigree his second best result of the season came the following March at Bay Hill. Meanwhile Villegas as a former winner both at PGA National and Sedgefield CC is an ‘out and out’ East Coast specialist.

From an incoming form point of view neither of the first two winners gave us any immediate clues as both Gay and Todd had been in dreadful form to put it frankly coming in. Todd had at least given a small hint of what was to come by finishing 28^th in Houston the week before after missing his first four cuts of the season however Gay had posted nothing better than 27^th all calendar year amongst a swathe of missed cuts.

Herbert had missed his first two cuts on the PGA Tour however he had proven his winning pedigree for the second time on the DP World Tour only three months or so previously when triumphing in Ireland.

Power meanwhile had managed nothing better than 30^th in his first three starts of 22/23 finishing a lowly 49^th in the limited field event the week before.

Villegas meanwhile had telegraphed the win finishing runner up in Mexico the week before.

In relation to previous form here Todd of course triumphed in the first edition of the event, however Gay had finished third here the previous year so we at least knew he was suited to the track.

2021 winner Herbert was making his debut here so nothing to go on there, however Power had played solidly in all three previous editions with a  best of 12^th the year before. Villegas meanwhile had done nothing of note here but he had made the cut on all of his previous three visits.

Sketchy stuff with regards to past form here or current form then however the clearest guide for this event comes from form at correlating courses. The obvious venues to focus are the likes of Hilton Head the home of the RBC Heritage, Sea Island the home of the RSM, Waialae CC the home of the Sony Open, The Corales Puntacana event and perhaps most significantly El Cameleon the former home of the Mayakoba event.

I say most significantly for the last event as the first winners here to date, Todd and Gay have also triumphed at the Mayakoba so the obvious links are there for all to see.

With Herbert being in his first full season Stateside there was no bank of correlating course form to compare, however with wins in Dubai and Ireland, as well as of course his Aussie background, his pedigree on links type tracks and in the wind was not in doubt and he put this to great use in 2022 when the wind blew here strongly.

Power meanwhile had a fifth at the Corales in 2018, a sixth at Hilton Head in 2019, fourth and third place finishes at  the RSM and Sony Open in 21/22 as well as a 12^th at the Mayakoba the same campaign so a huge amount of pointers there. Finally as well as triumphing by the coast at PGA National and winning on the shorter par 70 Sedgefield CC, Villegas has posted plenty of top tens at venues like Hilton Head and Sea Island over the years.

WEATHER FORECAST

Temperatures look set to sit around seventy degrees for the week so plenty warm enough, however rain and wind looks set to play its part across the four days.

With regards to wind at the time of writing we look set to see gusts of 30mph+ across the four days. Showers are in the forecast throughout the week while Saturday could see some heavier more persistent rain.

As I always say though…this could all change!            

 PICKS

I have gone with six players this week as follows;

DANIEL BERGER – 35/1 – 2pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

I’ll start this week by sticking with one player from our team in Mexico, Daniel Berger.

Berger started poorly last week with an opening round of 74, however rounds of 66 and 64 on Friday and Saturday saw him vault himself right in to the mix for a place before a sluggish 70 on Sunday saw him ultimately finish 20^th.

Still though it was another solid performance from Berger in what has been a really encouraging Fall for him to date and he has now crept in to the top 125 as things stand.

A native of Florida, Daniel has always been a good wind player with his record at PGA National certainly a testament to that. With the wind forecast to blow this week then Berger should be in his element.

After the slow opening in Mexico Berger continued to hit his irons really nicely as the week progressed, ranking third and fourth in GIR on Friday and Saturday and I’m happy to give him another chance to thrive here.

WESLEY BRYAN - 66/1 – 1pt e/w 1/5 odds 1^st 8

One player who has really caught the eye in the Fall is Wesley Bryan as he has made all four cuts with two top 15 finishes to his name.

The best of these performances came last week in Mexico where Wesley finished sixth and there is every reason to think he can build on that momentum further here this week.

A former champion at Hilton Head Bryan is clearly at his most comfortable on shorter coastal layouts where his lack of length off the tee won’t be penalised.

Bryan’s strong Fall has seen him climb from outside of the 150 to 128^th and within touching distance of a full PGA Tour card again and I’ll risk him to keep the pedal to the metal in Bermuda again this week.

KEVIN STREELMAN – 80/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Kevin Streelman is playing in the Bermuda Championship for the first time this week, an indication of where he sits in the Fedex Fall, 139^th.

That said with a plethora of top tens over the years at Hilton Head and Pebble Beach the test here really should be to the 46yr olds liking.

A poor 2024 for Streelman then however he has turned up to the party when needed most in the Fall, landing a third place finish in Utah  to vault up the standings from his initial starting point outside of the top 150.

After a couple of weeks off following a missed cut at the Shriners Kevin produced a solid week in Mexico to finish 24^th ranking eighth in GIR.

With plenty of work to be done still though if he wants to crack the top 125 I’ll take Streelman to produce another strong week here.

GARRICK HIGGO – 80/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Let’s be honest the selection of Higgo should probably come with a health warning as the South African could really produce absolutely anything this week.

A hugely talented player I’ve taken a view for a while that Garrick is ‘too good to go down’ [That said see also Cameron Champ], and he finally produced something in Mexico last week that could just be the catalyst to saving his card.

After opening with a 70 Higgo improved every day as the week progressed before a closing 64 saw him finish sixth and vault up in to 138^th in the Fedex standings.

With a spot in the top 150 most likely wrapped up then Higgo now needs ‘same again’ if he is going to threaten the top 125.

With plenty of experience in the wind both back home and in Europe Garrick should be able to handle the anticipated conditions, while two decent efforts in Bermuda on two previous visits offer encouragement.

The layers clearly feel last week was a ‘one off’ and they may well be right, however I am happy to take the bait at the odds on offer.

 KEVIN CHAPPELL – 90/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Next up in an event that has seen a fare degree of success for veterans over recent years I’ll take the bait on the promising recent signs from Kevin Chappell.

It’s been a long road back for Chappell following the major back issues he has suffered from, however with six made cuts in his last seven starts there are definitely some signs that he could gradually be starting to rediscover some of his old game.

Always known as a strong ball striker in his heyday, Kevin has top tens on his CV at the British Open, Hilton Head and at the RSM so we know he is comfortable by the coast and in the wind.

Chappell opened up with a 75 in Mexico before producing rounds of 65 66 & 66 to finish 12^th to post his best finish on tour since a 10^th place at the CIMB over six years ago so he should arrive in Bermuda in really good spirits.

At 154^th in the Fedex Fall Kevin is another who needs a really big week and I’m happy to chance him here.

AARON BADDELEY – 250/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8

Finally this week I’ll take a flyer on another veteran, Aaron Baddeley.

2024 has been the usual season of struggle we’ve become accustomed to from Badds over recent years and he enters the final two events at 163^rd in the Fedex Fall.

With his back against the wall then if the Aussie is going to produce a big week this could just be the perfect set up for him.

A proven performer in the wind over the years with a Heritage title to his name at the correlating Harbor Town Aaron also landed the trophy at Riviera in foul weather so we know this weeks anticipated conditions will hold no fear for him.

Sixth here on his last visit in 2022 Aaron is definitely at his best on shorter layouts these days.

Aaron arrives here on the back of a made cut in Mexico where he ranked 17^th for GIR on the week with his iron play particularly thriving on Thursday and Saturday. I’ll take a chance then that he can build on that effort and produce a big performance.